Published: March 01, 2009 11:38 am      

Local economy outlook positive in ’09

Snead says 2010 will be the risk year for oklahoma

DUNCAN — Although the national economy may be bleak, Oklahoma’s and specifically Duncan’s economic forecast is still positive, at least for the year ahead.

“2010 will really be the risk year for Oklahoma,” said Dr. Mark Snead, who was the keynote speaker at the annual Duncan Area Economic Development Foundation (DAEDF) banquet Thursday night. Snead taught at Oklahoma State University and recently took a job with the Federal Reserve Bank in Denver.

Over the years, Snead helped create many of the economic forecasts that DAEDF uses in attracting businesses to the local community.

Oklahoma is an energy state, which Snead said is more than just drilling, and handles recessions in different ways than the rest of the country.

This last year, Oklahoma and specifically Duncan saw strong retail sales and job growth while the rest of the country did not do well at all, he said.

“How is this possible in a recession?” Snead asked. “The only thing I can think of is that the Oklahoma consumer hasn’t given in yet.”

Snead calls the nationwide recession a “real good one,” but, for Oklahomans, is nothing compared with what was suffered in the 1974-1975 and 1981-1986 recessions.

In fact, this last year, Duncan had a 2.1 percent job gain with retail sales up 7.3 percent, wage and salary income up 6 percent and the unemployment rate at 3.5 percent, Snead said.

For the upcoming year, Snead predicts that Duncan will experience job growth in the health services, financial services, local government, accommodations and food services because of the momentum going into the economic slowdown.

Duncan’s economy is roughly one year behind the rest of the nation, so there may be job losses this year for Duncan in the manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, professional, scientific and technical services, he said.

“We’ll probably break even throughout the state in 2009,” Snead said.

Even with the most dire national economic conditions in 2009, Snead’s economic formulae still predicted Duncan with break even and slight positive growth.

During Thursday’s banquet, DAEDF President Lyle Roggow thanked Dustin Cox and LaWayne Jones, two DAEDF board members, for their service to Duncan’s economy.

Cox said that it was a privilege to serve on the board, but intimidating as well.

In recent days, Cox came up with a way to describe DAEDF’s purpose in the economy.

“It’s like fishing,” he said. “If you have a line in the water, you may catch a big fish and you may catch a little fish, but if you don’t have a line in the water, you won’t catch any fish.”

What Roggow is doing for DAEDF and Duncan is keeping a line in the economic waters, Cox said.

One of the ways DAEDF is keeping its line in the water is by planning on establishing a business incubator in Duncan with the help of the Red River Technology Center and Cameron University.

“This will help create business within the community,” Roggow said. “There are great, great opportunities ahead for Duncan.”